Wutar Lantarki ta AI ta kunna Bukatar Kasuwa; Farashin Fiber Optic na G652D G657A2 ya tashi zuwa Sabon Matsayi

Tun daga farkon shekarar 2026, kasuwar fiber optic ta shaida hauhawar farashi mai sauƙi. Farashin fiber optic na yau da kullun na G.652.D mai yanayin guda ɗaya ya tashi da sauri daga kusan 3usd a kowace kilomita mai core a ƙarshen 2025 zuwa kusan 7.5usd a kowace kilomita mai core. Kudaden da aka ƙididdige a wasu tashoshin rarrabawa sun karya alamar 7.5usd - wasu ma sun wuce ta12usd a kowace core-kilomitaiyaka - saita sabon matsayi na shekaru bakwai don tara darajar farashi. A lokaci guda, manyan zare na musamman kamar G.657.A2 da G.654.E sun fuskanci ƙarin hauhawar farashi.

Mutane da dama da aka yi hira da su a masana'antu sun nuna cewa wannan zagayen hauhawar farashi yana faruwa ne sakamakon karuwar buƙatu da ta samo asali daga tushe da dama: kayayyakin more rayuwa na AI, shirin "Eastern Data, Western Computing", da kuma zurfin tsarin sadarwa na 5G. Wannan karuwar buƙatu ta ta'azzara ne sakamakon tsauraran matakan samar da fiber na gani da kuma karancin kayan masarufi na sama, wanda hakan ke haifar da rashin daidaito tsakanin wadata da buƙata. Sakamakon waɗannan abubuwan, farashin hannun jari na kamfanonin da aka lissafa a cikin sarkar masana'antar fiber na gani, kebul, da sadarwa ta gani sun ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Manyan kamfanoni suna ba da rahoton cikakken tsari da gyare-gyare zuwa ga hasashen samun kuɗin shiga, wanda ke nuna cewa masana'antar tana kaiwa ga wani muhimmin matsayi na sauyawa - sauyawa daga wani mataki na yaƙin farashi zuwa ɗaya na farfadowar riba.

**Haɓaka Farashin Fiber na gani Ya Fara Aiki Gabaɗaya**

A matsayin "tsarin jijiyoyi" na kayayyakin more rayuwa na dijital, fiber na gani yana aiki a matsayin babban hanyar watsa wutar lantarki ta kwamfuta ta AI, sauƙaƙe sadarwa ta 5G, haɗa cibiyoyin bayanai, da kuma tallafawa aikin "Gabashin Bayanai, Ƙwaƙwalwar Yammacin Duniya". Ayyukansa da wadatarsa ​​suna ƙayyade saurin da ingancin ci gaban tattalin arzikin dijital kai tsaye.

Karin farashin fiber na gani a yanzu ya fara ne a kwata na huɗu na 2025 kuma ya shiga cikin yanayi mai sauri a cikin Janairu da Fabrairu na 2026. Wannan ba kawai hauhawar farashi bane wanda ya shafi takamaiman takamaiman bayanai, amma a maimakon haka cikakken hauhawar farashi ya mamaye dukkan nau'ikan samfura da hanyoyin rarrabawa.

Musamman ma, bayanai daga CRU sun nuna cewa matsakaicin farashin kasuwa na fiber mai yanayin G.652.D guda ɗaya—wanda aka fi amfani da shi a fannin sadarwa—ya tashi daga ƙasa da yuan 20 a kowace kilomita mai tushe a watan Nuwamba na 2025 zuwa tsakanin yuan 40 zuwa 50 a kowace kilomita mai tushe nan da watan Fabrairu na 2026. Matsakaicin ƙaruwar wata-wata ya wuce kashi 75%, wanda hakan ya ninka farashin sau biyu cikin watanni uku kacal.

Daga mahangar sayayya, hauhawar farashi a lokaci guda a cikin tayin sayayya na tsakiya wanda kamfanonin jigilar kaya ke jagoranta yana ƙara tabbatar da sahihancin da dorewar wannan zagayen hauhawar farashi na yanzu.

Fadada gibin da ke tsakanin wadata da buƙata shine babban abin da ke ƙara wa wannan hauhawar farashi. Guotai Haitong Securities ta bayyana cewa, a kan yanayin babban ci gaba a fannin fiber optics, an tabbatar da yanayin hauhawar farashi a faɗin masana'antu. Bayan fuskantar matsin lamba a rabin farko na shekarar da ta gabata, farashin fiber optics marasa amfani ya sake dawowa a rabi na biyu; wannan farfadowa ya samo asali ne daga ƙaruwar buƙatar fiber G.657.A2 a ƙasashen waje, wanda ya haifar da sauyi a ƙarfin samarwa. Yayin da ƙarfin ya koma daga fiber G.652.D—wanda ya haifar da raguwar wadata da kuma tsawaita lokacin jagora a hankali—farashin fiber marasa amfani ya ci gaba da hauhawa a cikin 'yan lokutan nan.

**An Kafa Tsarin Zamani Na Wani Lokaci**

Haɓakar farashin fiber optic da ke ci gaba da ƙaruwa ba wai kawai canjin kasuwa ne na ɗan lokaci wanda hasashe na ɗan lokaci ke haifarwa ba; a'a, sakamakon haɗakar abubuwa da yawa ne, waɗanda suka haɗa da rashin daidaito tsakanin wadata da buƙata, tsarin farashi mai tsauri, da kuma inganta yanayin masana'antu.

Daga cikin waɗannan abubuwan, ƙaruwar buƙatu mai yawa—tare da tsauraran ƙa'idoji a ɓangaren wadata—sun zama babban dalilin. Daga mahangar buƙata, saurin gina kayayyakin kwamfuta na AI ya bayyana a matsayin babban abin da ke ƙara yawan buƙatar fiber na gani.

Tare da babban tsarin amfani da fasahar AI mai samar da bayanai da kuma manyan samfuran harsuna, saurin gina cibiyoyin bayanai na AI mai girman gaske yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Cibiyar bayanai ta AI mai girman gaske tana cin sau uku zuwa biyar na fiber na gani idan aka kwatanta da cibiyar bayanai ta gargajiya; saboda haka, buƙatar fiber mai ƙarancin asara, mai saurin gaske - wanda ke da mahimmanci ga haɗin kai na ciki da watsawa daga rukuni zuwa rukuni mai nisa - yana fuskantar ci gaba mai girma.

Daɗaɗɗun zagayawar fiber optic da suka gabata galibi galibi suna faruwa ne ta hanyar faɗaɗa hanyoyin sadarwa ko kuma tura tashoshin tushe na 5G daga masu aiki da hanyoyin sadarwa - waɗanda aka yi niyya don magance matsalar "ko akwai haɗin kai." Duk da haka, zagayawar da ake yi a yanzu tana faruwa ne ta hanyar buƙatar tallafawa buƙatun kwamfuta masu yawan gaske na manyan samfuran AI - musamman, magance ƙalubalen "jigilar ƙarfin kwamfuta." Wannan sauyi a buƙata - daga matakin samun damar mai amfani zuwa ɗakunan kayan aiki na asali da Haɗin Cibiyar Bayanai (DCI) - ya canza buƙatun fiber na gani na musamman masu aiki mai yawa, marasa asara.

A lokaci guda, ci gaba da ci gaba da zurfafa tsarin 5G da kuma ci gaba da tura hanyoyin sadarwa na 6G suma suna ci gaba da ƙara yawan buƙatar fiber na gani. Bukatar ƙarin ƙididdigar fiber a cikin hanyoyin sadarwa na fronthaul da midhaul na tashoshin tushe na 5G ya ƙaru sosai; haka kuma, shirye-shirye kamar farfaɗo da karkara da haɓaka "Gigabit Cities" suna haɓaka hanyoyin sadarwa na Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) zuwa saurin Gigabit 10, wanda ke tabbatar da ci gaba mai ƙarfi da dorewa a cikin ɓangaren sadarwa na gargajiya.

Bugu da ƙari, saurin ci gaban yanayin aikace-aikace masu tasowa—kamar Intanet na Masana'antu, fiber optics na motoci, da sadarwa ta sararin samaniya—ya ƙara faɗaɗa yuwuwar ƙaruwar buƙatar fiber optic. Wannan juyin halitta ya canza tsarin buƙatun masana'antar: ya koma daga dogaro ɗaya tilo ga sayayya ta tsakiya daga masu gudanar da harkokin sadarwa, yana canzawa zuwa yanayin buƙatu iri-iri da na zamani.

Babban siffa ta karuwar farashin fiber optic a yanzu ita ce hauhawar farashin *tsari* ne, wanda galibi ke faruwa ne sakamakon buƙatu. Gina kayayyakin aikin kwamfuta na AI da shirye-shirye kamar aikin "Eastern Data, Western Computing" sun haifar da ƙaruwar buƙatar fiber optic; a lokaci guda, buƙatar jiragen sama marasa matuƙa na FPV na soja suma sun tashi sosai. Duk da haka, a ɓangaren samar da kayayyaki, ƙuntatawa kan ƙarfin samar da fiber optic preforms (preform rods) ya sa ya yi wuya a mayar da martani cikin sauri ga wannan ƙaruwar. Wannan rashin daidaito tsakanin wadata da buƙata ya haifar da ƙaruwa mai ƙarfi a farashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Ba kamar misalan da suka gabata ba - inda hauhawar farashi galibi ke haifar da sayayya ta tsakiya ta hanyar masu aiki da kamfanonin sadarwa da sauran hanyoyin buƙatu na gargajiya, da kuma inda zagayowar farashin ya yi gajeru - karuwar farashin yanzu ta kasance ƙarƙashin AI da sauran sassan da ke tasowa. Yana wakiltar koma-baya na dogon lokaci da ke faruwa a tsakanin babban canjin masana'antu; karuwar buƙata tana da alaƙa da dorewa da girma, maimakon zama kawai samfurin hasashe na ɗan gajeren lokaci.

Babban abin da ke haifar da wannan zagayen hauhawar farashi shine cikas a cikin ƙarfin preform na fiber optic. A cikin sarkar masana'antar fiber optic, preforms suna ƙayyade iyakar wadata; wannan ɓangaren yana da alaƙa da manyan shingen fasaha, tsawon zagayowar faɗaɗa ƙarfin aiki, da manyan buƙatun jari, wanda ke sa ya yi wa wadata wahala ta ci gaba da tafiya daidai da ci gaban buƙata. Idan aka duba gaba, idan ƙarfin samar da preform ya buɗe a hankali ta hanyar tura sabbin kayan aiki da ci gaban fasaha, rashin daidaiton buƙata da wadata zai iya raguwa, kuma farashin fiber optic zai koma zuwa matsakaicin da ya dace a hankali. Duk da haka, idan ci gaban AI da sauran sassa ya wuce tsammanin - ci gaba da ci gaba, babban ci gaba a buƙata - yayin da faɗaɗa ƙarfin preform ya gaza hasashen, farashin na iya kasancewa a matakan da suka hauhawa ko ci gaba da haɓaka a tsakanin canje-canje.

A cikin tsarin samar da fiber na gani, preform na fiber na gani (sandar preform) shine babban matakin. Yana wakiltar kashi 60% zuwa 70% na jimlar kuɗin samarwa kuma yana wakiltar ɓangaren da ke da manyan shingen fasaha da manyan buƙatun saka hannun jari. Bugu da ƙari, zagayowar gini na layin samar da preform guda ɗaya yana da faɗi, yawanci yana ɗaukar watanni 18 zuwa 24 - tsari mai tsawo wanda ya ƙunshi komai tun daga amincewa da aiki, siyan kayan aiki, shigarwa, da kuma aiwatarwa har zuwa haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa na ƙarshe.

Daga shekarar 2019 zuwa 2024, masana'antar fiber optic ta tsunduma cikin wani dogon yakin farashi wanda ya lalata ribar kamfanoni sosai. Saboda haka, yawancin kamfanoni sun zabi rage kashe kudaden jarinsu, wanda ya haifar da takaita yawan karfin samar da kayayyaki a wannan lokacin.

Duk da haka, masana'antu sun yi imanin cewa wannan hauhawar farashin fiber na gani da ba kasafai ake samu ba zai ragu nan ba da jimawa ba.

Karin farashin zare na gani yana nuna karancin kayan da ke karkashin tattalin arzikin dijital. Duk da cewa wannan matsin lamba na farashi daga baya za a iya mika shi ga masu aiki da sadarwa, yana da yuwuwar a sha shi cikin jimlar kudin da ke da alaƙa da haɓaka kayayyakin more rayuwa na AI. Muddin gasar duniya don ƙarfin kwamfuta na AI ta ci gaba ba tare da katsewa ba, wannan ƙarancin tsarin - wanda ya samo asali daga haɓaka fasaha - ba za a iya warware shi cikin sauƙi a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci ba kawai ta hanyar haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa da ake da shi. Bukatar cibiyoyin kwamfuta masu hankali don bandwidth mai yawa da watsawa mai ƙarancin jinkiri ya sanya su a matsayin injin da ke haifar da haɓakar buƙatar fiber optics, ta haka ne ke sake fasalin yanayin buƙata na masana'antar fiber. Idan aka kwatanta da cibiyoyin bayanai na gargajiya, buƙatun fiber optic na cibiyar kwamfuta mai hankali ɗaya na iya zama da yawa - ko ma fiye da sau goma - fiye da; misali, rukunin GPU na yau da kullun wanda ya ƙunshi katunan 10,000, yana buƙatar dubban kilomita na fiber-core kawai don haɗin uwar garken ciki. Ana hasashen rabon buƙatar fiber optic da ya danganta da yanayin cibiyar bayanai ta AI da DCI (Bayanan Cibiyar Sadarwa) ke jagoranta zai ƙaru daga ƙasa da ƙasa daKashi 5% a shekarar 2024 zuwa kashi 35% nan da shekarar 2027.